Certified results for 2020 / 2022 / 2024, plus a simulated 2026 poll.
Election year
Simulated poll
Opinion snapshot from an LLM-persona poll conducted June 21–22, 2026 — simulated estimates, not real votes.
Two-party vote share (Dem ↔ Rep)
Rep > 70 %
Rep 60 – 70 %
Rep 55 – 60 %
Competitive (45 – 55 %)
Dem 55 – 60 %
Dem 60 – 70 %
Dem > 70 %
Net presidential approval (approve − disapprove)
≤ −20 pts
−20 to −10
−10 to −5
±5
+5 to +10
+10 to +20
≥ +20 pts
Undecided share (House race)
0 – 5 %
5 – 10 %
10 – 15 %
15 – 20 %
20 – 25 %
25 – 30 %
> 30 %
Action priority — where to spend time
High — spend time here
—
Medium
—
Low
Recommends Persuade / Mobilize / Hold — click a precinct.
No vote this year